← Beginner's Luck Distorted Reflections Store Championship
Fire ExiaTier 2
at Beginner's Luck Distorted Reflections Store Championship
decks
1
(3.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
4-1-0
overall winrate
80.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
60.8%
avg ELO +6.2 per match
expected value
58.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
55.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1493
· median 1493
· range 1493–1493
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1078
Q1 1212
Q3 1367
1633
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 21.4% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 52.7% | +2.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 14.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 14.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.9% | +15.8 |
| Water Genbu | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.1 |
| Fire Suited | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Exia decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
